Modelización estocástica de la elección de carrera universitaria y de los resultados obtenidos en primer curso de las titulaciones de Pedagogía y Magisterio

Abstract

This research presents the logit-binomial modelling of the demand for High Education and of the secondary first year students´ results, who have registered at the Education Faculty at the University of Murcia. Using such models, it has been tried to establish the conditioning factors which influence the students´s election of course options. We introduce, among others, those variables the «human capital theory» considers most relevant to the decisions for investing in Education. The estimated models explain, in one hand, the students´ educational choices considering their mothers´s educational success, their academic performance and COU option students choose; on the other hand, these models explain the results students obtain in their first year at university, taking into account that their previous results and the COU option are the variables which best explain and reflect the students´ success or failure.