Persistencia y capacidad predictiva de márgenes y rotaciones. un análisis empírico

Persistence and predictive ability of margin and turnover. an empirical analysis


  • Juan Monterrey Universidad de Extremadura
  • Amparo Sánchez-Segura Universidad de Extremadura
Palabras clave: persistencia, capacidad predictiva, Análisis de Estados Financieros


En el presente trabajo abordamos el estudio empírico de la persistencia y capacidad predictiva de los componentes margen y rotación de la rentabilidad. A partir de una amplia muestra de compañías españolas, hemos documentado cómo la persistencia de la rotación es superior a la del margen, y cómo los componentes anormales de margen y rotación son menos persistentes que sus componentes sectoriales. Con relación a la capacidad predictiva, nuestros hallazgos confirman que el poder de predicción del margen es más elevado que el de la rotación, aunque su persistencia sea menor. Al separar los componentes sectorial y anormal de margen y rotación hemos comprobado cómo los componentes anormales muestran una capacidad predictiva superior a los componentes sectoriales. Los análisis complementarios muestran el distinto poder predictivo según el signo positivo o negativo de márgenes y rotaciones anormales, y según el signo del resultado, así como la robustez de nuestros hallazgos.


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Cómo citar
Monterrey, J., & Sánchez-Segura, A. (2011). Persistencia y capacidad predictiva de márgenes y rotaciones. un análisis empírico: Persistence and predictive ability of margin and turnover. an empirical analysis. Revista De Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, 14(1), 121-153.