The central Sahel: climate change, migration and conflict
Resumen
En las próximas décadas, los efectos del cambio climático se manifestarán con particular intensidad en la región del Sahel, una zona ya caracterizada por su fragilidad ecológica y social. El aumento sostenido de las temperaturas, la posible desertificación generalizada y la degradación ambiental progresiva representan desafíos significativos para la sostenibilidad de los medios de vida en esta región (IPCC, 2019). Los responsables políticos, informes de centros de investigación (think tanks) y declaraciones de organismos internacionales han caracterizado al cambio climático como un «multiplicador de amenazas», aludiendo a su potencial para intensificar conflictos existentes y provocar desplazamientos forzados (Tesfaye, 2022; Banco Mundial, 2022). Sin embargo, esta lógica es menos evidente de lo que parece. En primer lugar, es necesario profundizar en la relación entre los fenómenos climáticos y la movilidad humana, así como reflexionar sobre el nexo entre cambio climático, fragilidad estatal y conflicto.
Finalmente, es fundamental identificar cuáles serán los principales impactos del cambio climático y cómo podrían afectar a los conflictos y a la migración.Desde un enfoque de ecología política, el artículo se centra en la interacción entre el cambio climático, la movilidad humana y el conflicto en el Sahel central, con especial atención a los casos de Níger, Malí y Burkina Faso.
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