Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente
Variables and Models for the Identification and Prediction of Business Failure: Revision of Recent Empirical Research Advances
Resumen
Este trabajo analiza la evolución en el tiempo de los estudios sobre fracaso empresarial. Con carácter general, partimos de la revisión crítica realizada en la literatura previa, y aportamos un análisis de la evidencia empírica adicional, con especial atención a la obtenida durante la última década. Pero además, para subsanar algunas deficiencias detectadas en las revisiones anteriores, nos ocupamos de tres aspectos, que pueden considerarse la principal contribución de este trabajo: primero, analizamos la evolución en las últimas décadas del concepto de fracaso empresarial o fallido, detectando cierta evolución desde la identificación hacia la predicción; segundo, analizamos las variables empleadas en los modelos, aportando un estudio de los rasgos empresariales que se representan con las variables (frente al tradicional análisis de frecuencia de las propias variables individuales), siendo los resultados más acordes con los planteamientos y desarrollos teóricos clásicos sobre el fracaso empresarial; y, finalmente, destacamos los puntos fuertes y débiles de las metodologías que, por su reciente aparición, no habían sido analizadas o muy poco por revisiones anteriores: las técnicas de inteligencia artificial y el análisis envolvente de datos (DEA). Adicionalmente, integramos en la revisión el numeroso grupo de trabajos empíricos publicados en España sobre la cuestión, y que no aparecían en ninguna de las revisiones previas analizadas.
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