Patrones comunes de fracaso y reorganización por sector y país para las PYMEs de seis países europeos utilizando PDFR

Common distress and reorganization patterns by sector and country for SMEs in six European countries using PDFR

Autores/as

DOI: https://doi.org/10.6018/rcsar.420171
Palabras clave: Reorganización empresarial, Fracaso empresarial, pymes, PDFR, Boosting

Agencias de apoyo

  • Junta de Castilla y León (Consejería de Educación) under Grant number LE103G18.

Resumen

Este estudio contribuye a la identificación de patrones comunes de fracaso en indicadores financieros por sector y país en Alemania, España, Finlandia, Francia, Italia y Portugal, así como a la identificación de patrones comunes de éxito en la reorganización. Utilizamos PDFR, que proporciona una medida de distancia al fracaso y permite hacer un seguimiento de la evolución de la empresa a través de sus ratios contables. Nuestros resultados muestran que los indicadores de estructura financiera, seguidos de fondo de maniobra, rentabilidad sobre activos, margen sobre ventas y cashflow sobre activos, son las variables más discriminantes de las pymes clasificadas como fracasadas, en todos los sectores y países analizados. En contraste, durante la reorganización, la rentabilidad sobre activos y sus componentes son los principales inductores iniciales de la recuperación, mientras que los indicadores de estructura financiera muestran una progresiva pero lenta recuperación. Se utilizan Boosting y Z-score como medidas de robustez.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Citas

Abidali, A.F., & Harris, F.C. (1995). A methodology for predicting company failure in the construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, 13, 189-196. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446199500000023

Acosta-González, E. Fernández-Rodríguez, F., & Ganga, H. (2019). Predicting corporate financial failure using macroeconomic variables and accounting data. Computational Economics, 53, 227-257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-017-9737-x

Alaka, H.A., Oyedele, L.O., Owolabi, H.A., Ajayi, S.O. Bilal, M., & Akinade, O.O. (2016). Methodological approach of construction business failure prediction studies: A review. Construction Management and Economics, 34(11), 808-842. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2016.1219037

Aldrich, H.E., & Auster, E. (1986). Even dwarfs started small: Liabilities of age and size and their strategic implications. In B.M. Staw & L.L. Cummings (Eds.), Research in organizational behavior (vol. 8, pp. 165-198). Greenwich, Connecticut, USA: JAI Press.

Altman, E.I. (1977). The Z-score bankruptcy model: Past, present and future. In E.I., Altman & A.W. Sametz (Eds,), Financial Crises: Institutions and markets in a fragile environment (89-108). Hoboken, Nueva Jersey, USA: John Wiley & Sons.

Altman, E.I. (2014a). Revisiting the recidivism - Chapter 22 phenomenon in the U.S. bankruptcy system. Brooklyn Journal of Corporate, Financial & Commercial Law, 8(2), 253-277.

Altman, E.I. (2014b). The role of distressed debt markets, hedge funds and recent trends in bankruptcy on the outcomes of Chapter 11 reorganizations. American Bankruptcy Institute Law Review, 1-36.

Altman, E.I., Kant, T., & Rattanaruengyot, T. (2009). Post-Chapter 11 bankruptcy performance: Avoiding Chapter 22. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 21(3), 53-64. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6622.2009.00239.x

Andrieu, G., Staglianò, R., & van der Zwan, P. (2018). Bank debt and trade credit for SMEs in Europe: Firm-, industry-, and country-level determinants. Small Business Economics, 51, 245-264. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-017-9926-y

Argenti, J. (1976). Corporate Collapse: The Causes and Symptoms. Hoboken, Nueva Jersey, USA: John Wiley & Sons.

Ayadi, R., Abid, I., & Guesmi, K. (2020). Survival of reorganized firms in France. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101434

Baixauli, J.S., & Módica-Milo, A. (2010). The bias of unhealthy SMEs in bankruptcy prediction models. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 17(1), 60-77. https://doi.org/10.1108/14626001011019134

Balcaen, S., & Ooghe, H. (2006). 35 years of studies on business failure: An overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems. The British Accounting Review, 38(1), 63-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2005.09.001

Bamiatzi, V., Bozos, K., Cavusgil, S.T., & Hult, G.T.M. (2016). Revisiting the firm, industry, and country effects on profitability under recessionary and expansion periods: A multilevel analysis. Strategic Management Journal, 37, 1448-1471. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2422

Beaver, W.H., Cascino, S., Correia, M., & McNichols, M.F. (2018). Bankruptcy in groups. SRC Discussion Paper No 81, August. 1-78. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2646916

Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2002). Industry growth and capital allocation: Does having a market- or bank-based system matter? Journal of Financial Economics, 64(2), 147-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(02)00074-0

Bhattacharjee, A., Higson, C., Holly, S., & Kattuman, P. (2009a). Macroeconomic instability and business exit: Determinants of failures and acquisitions of UK firms. Economica, 76(301), 108-131. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2007.00662.x

Bhattacharjee, A., Higson, C., Holly, S., & Kattuman, P. (2009b). Macroeconomic instability and corporate failure: The role of the legal system. Review of Law & Economics, 5(1), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.2202/1555-5879.1136

Box, M. (2008). The death of firms: Exploring the effects of environment and birth cohort on firm survival in Sweden. Small Business Economics, 31(4), 379-393. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-007-9061-2

Camacho, M.M., Segovia, M.J., & Pascual, D. (2015). Which characteristics predict the survival of insolvent firms? An SME reorganization prediction model. Journal of Small Business Management, 53(2), 340-354. https://doi.org/10.1111/jsbm.12076

Campbell, S.V. (1996). Predicting bankruptcy reorganization for closely held firms. Accounting Horizons, 10(3), 12-25.

Castaño, F.J. (2015). Variables y modelos de fracaso empresarial. Propuesta de una metodología de fronteras basada en percentiles. Madrid, España: Instituto de Contabilidad y Auditoría de Cuentas.

Cepec, J., & Grajzl, P. (2020). Debt-to-equity conversion in bankruptcy reorganization and post-bankruptcy firm survival. International Review of Law and Economics, 61, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irle.2019.105878

Chang, Y.Y., & Dasgupta, S. (2002). What explains cross-country industry growth patterns? Trade, development and the equity financing channel. International Review of Finance, 3(2), 105-129. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2443.00035

Chava, S., & Jarrow, R. (2004). Bankruptcy prediction and industry effects. Review of Finance, 8 (4), 537-569. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/8.4.537

Claessens, S., & Klapper, L.F. (2005). Bankruptcy around the World: Explanations of its relative use. American Law and Economics Review, 7(1), 253-283. https://doi.org/10.1093/aler/ahi004

Clark, G., Palaskas, T., Tracey, P., & Tsampra, M. (2004). Globalization and competitive strategy in Europe's vulnerable regions: Firm, industry and country effects in labour-intensive industries. Regional Studies, 38(9), 1085-1100. https://doi.org/10.1080/0034340042000292656

Cochran, A.B. (1981). Small business mortality rates: A review of the literature, Journal of Small Business Management, 19(4), 50–59.

Cook, G.A.S., Pandit, N.R., & Milman, D. (2012). A resource-based analysis of bankruptcy law, SMEs and corporate recovery. International Small Business Journal, 30(3), 275-293. https://doi.org/10.1177/0266242611407409

Cowling, M., Liu, W., & Zhang, N. (2018). Did firm age, experience, and access to finance count? SME performance after the global financial crisis. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 28(1), 77-100. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-017-0502-z

Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Maksimovic, V. (2001). Firms as financial intermediaries - evidence from trade credit data. Policy, Research working paper nº. WPS 2696 Washington,USA: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/973231468767093690/Firms-as-financial-intermediaries-evidence-from-trade-credit-data

Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Maksimovic, V. (2002). Funding growth in bank-based and market-based financial system: Evidence from firm-level data. Journal of Financial Economics, 65(3), 337-363. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(02)00145-9

Denis, D.K., & Rodgers, K.J. (2007). Chapter 11: Duration, outcome, and post-reorganization performance. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 42(1), 101-118. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109000002209

Dewaelheyns, N., & Van Hulle, C. (2008). Legal reform and aggregate small and micro business bankruptcy rates: evidence from the 1997 Belgian bankruptcy code. Small Business Economics, 31, 409-424. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-007-9060-3

Gaganis, C., Pasiouras, F., & Voulgari, F. (2019). Culture, business environment and SMEs' profitability: Evidence from European countries. Economic Modelling, 78, May, 275-292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.09.023

Geroski, P.A., Mata, J., & Portugal, P. (2010). Founding conditions and the survival of new firms. Strategic Management Journal, 31(5), 510-529. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.823

Goddard, J., Tavakoli, M., & Wilson, J.O.S. (2009). Sources of variation in firm profitability and growth. Journal of Business Research, 62(4), April, 495-508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2007.10.007

Gupta, M., & Huefner, R. (1972). A cluster analysis study of financial ratios and industry characteristics. Journal of Accounting Research, 10(1), 77-95. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490219

Guthrie, J.P., & Datta, D.K. (2008). Dumb and dumber: The impact of downsizing on firm performance as moderated by industry conditions. Organization Science, 19(1), 108-123. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1070.0298

Gutiérrez-Urtiaga, M. (2000). Efectos del endeudamiento sobre los resultados de las empresas en sectores en crisis. Investigaciones Económicas, 24(1), 75-116. https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=17324103

Habib, A., D'Costa, M., Huang, H.J., Bhuiyan, M.B.U., & Sun, L. (2020). Determinants and consequences of financial distress: Review of the empirical literature. Accounting & Finance, 60, 1023-1075. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12400

Harhoff, D., Stahl, K., & Woywode, M. (1998). Legal form, growth and exit of West German firms - empirical results for manufacturing, construction, trade and service industries. The Journal of Industrial Economics, 46(4), 453-488. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6451.00083

Harrigan, K.R. (1980). Strategies for declining industries. The Journal of Business Strategy, 1(2), 20-34. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb038896

Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2001). The elements of statistical learning. New York, USA: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7

Hazak, A., & Männasoo, K. (2010). Indicators of corporate default - EU-based empirical study. Transformation in Business & Economics, 9(1), 62-76.

Headd, B. (2003). Redefining business success: Distinguishing between closure and failure. Small Business Economics, 21(1), 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024433630958

Herbane, B. (2012). Exploring crisis management in UK small- and medium-sized enterprises. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 20(4), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12006

Hillegeist, S.A., Keating, E.K., Cram, D.P., & Lundstedt, K.G. (2004). Assessing the probability of bankruptcy. Review of Accounting Studies, 9, 5-34. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:RAST.0000013627.90884.b7

Horta, I.M., & Camanho, A.S. (2013). Company failure prediction in the construction industry. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(16), 6253-6257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2013.05.045

Keasey, K., & Watson, R. (1991). Financial distress prediction models: A review of their usefulness. British Journal of Management, 2(2), 89-102. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8551.1991.tb00019.x

Kelly, R., Brien, E.O., & Stuart, R. (2015). A long-run survival analysis of corporate liquidations in Ireland. Small Business Economics, 44(3), 671-683. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-014-9605-1

Khoja, L., Chipulu, M., & Jayasekera, R. (2019). Analysis of financial distress cross countries: Using macroeconomic, industrial indicators and accounting data. International Review of Financial Analysis, 66, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2019.101379

Klobucnik, J., Miersch, D., & Sievers, S. (2017). Predicting Early Warning Signals of Financial Distress: Theory and Empirical Evidence. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2237757 or https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2237757

Koyuncugil, A.S., & Ozgulbas, N. (2012). Financial early warning system model and data mining application for risk detection. Expert systems with Applications, 39(6), 6238-6253. https://doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.12.021

Laitinen, E.K. (2008). Data system for assessing probability of failure in SME reorganization. Industrial Management and Data Systems, 108(7), 849-866. https://doi.org/10.1108/02635570810897964

Laitinen, E.K. (2011). Assessing viability of Finnish reorganization and bankruptcy firms. European Journal of Law and Economics, 31(2), 167-198. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-009-9136-4

Laitinen, E.K. (2014). Influence of management accounting change on performance of small entrepreneurial reorganising firms. International Journal of Management and Enterprise Development, 13(2), 164-187. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMED.2014.062552

Laitinen, E.K. (2018). Financial reporting: Long-term change of financial ratios. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 8(9), 1893-1927. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajibm.2018.89128

La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R.W. (1998). Law and finance. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6), 1113-1155. https://doi.org/10.1086/250042

Lev, B. (1969). Industry averages as targets for financial ratios. Journal of Accounting Research, 7(2), 290-299. https://doi.org/10.2307/2489971

Liou, D.K., & Smith, M. (2007), Macroeconomic variables and financial distress. Journal of Accounting, Business and Management, 14(1), 17-31.

Liu, J. (2004). Macroeconomic determinants of corporate failures: Evidence from the UK. Applied Economics, 36, 939-945. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000233168

López-Gutiérrez, C., Torre-Olmo, B., & Sanfilippo-Azofra, S. (2012). Firms' performance under different bankruptcy systems: A Europe-USA empirical analysis. Accounting & Finance, 52(3), 849-872. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2011.00407.x

Lukason, O., & Laitinen, E.K. (2019). Firm failure processes and components of failure risk: An analysis of European bankrupt firms. Journal of Business Research, 98, 380-390. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2018.06.025

Makropoulos, A., Weir, C., & Zhang, X. (2020a). An analysis of the determinants of failure processes in UK SMEs. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 27(3), 405-426. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSBED-07-2019-0223

Makropoulos, A., Weir, C., & Zhang, X. (2020b). Stages and determinants of European Union small and medium sized firms' failure process. International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 10(3), 242-263. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCEE.2020.108389

Masiak, C., Moritz, A., & Lang, F. (2017). Financing patterns of European SMEs revisited: An updated empirical taxonomy and determinants of SME financing clusters. European Investment Fund Working Paper 2017/40. Available at https://www.eif.org/news_centre/publications/eif_wp_40.pdf

Mayr, S., Mitter, C., & Aichmayr, A. (2017). Corporate crisis and sustainable reorganization: Evidence from bankrupt Austrian SMEs. Journal of Small Business Management, 55(1), 108-127. https://doi.org/10.1111/jsbm.12248

McGuinness, G., Hogan, T., & Powell, R. (2018). European trade credit use and SME survival. Journal of Corporate Finance, 49, 81-103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.12.005

McLeay, S., & Fieldsend, S. (1987). Sector and size effects in ratio analysis - an indirect test of ratio proportionality. Accounting & Business Research, 17(66), 133-40. https://doi.org/10.1080/00014788.1987.9729792

Mensah, Y.M. (1984). An examination of the stationarity of multivariate bankruptcy prediction models: A methodological study. Journal of Accounting Research, 22(1), 380-395. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490719

Pandit, N.R., Cook, G.A.S, Milman, D., & Chittenden, F.C. (2000). Corporate rescue: Empirical evidence on company voluntary arrangements and small firms. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 7(3), 241-254. https://doi.org/10.1108/EUM0000000006846

Platt, H.D., & Platt, M.B. (1990). Development of a class of stable predictive variables: The case of bankruptcy prediction. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 7(1), 31-51. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.1990.tb00548.x

Platt, H.D., & Platt, M.B. (1991). A note on the use of industry-relative ratios in bankruptcy prediction. Journal of Banking and Finance, 15, 1183-1194. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(91)90057-S

Rajan, R.G., & Zingales, L. (1998). Financial dependence and growth. American Economic Review, 88, 559-586. http://www.jstor.org/stable/116849

Rico, M., & Puig, F. (2019). Successful turnarounds in bankrupt firms? Assessing retrenchment in the most severe form of crisis. Business Research Quarterly, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.brq.2019.06.002

Rodano, G., Serrano-Velarde, N., & Tarantino, E. (2016). Bankruptcy law and bank financing. Journal of Financial Economics 120(2), 363-382. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.016

Segovia, M.J., & Camacho, M.M. (2012). Which financial indicators could influence the decision of the independent expert on the survival of a company going through a pre-bankruptcy phase? Empirical evidence in Spain. Cuadernos de Contabilidad, 13(32), 97-119.

Sueyoshi, T., & Goto, M. (2009). DEA-DA for bankruptcy-based performance assessment: Misclassification analysis of Japanese construction industry. European Journal of Operational Research, 199(2), 576-594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2008.11.039

Sun, J., Li, H., Huang, Q.H., & He, K.Y. (2014). Predicting financial distress and corporate failure: A review from the state-of-the-art definitions, modeling, sampling, and featuring approaches. Knowledge-Based Systems, 57, 41-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2013.12.006

Tascón, M.T., & Castaño, F.J. (2012). Variables and models for the identification and prediction of business failure: Revision of recent empirical research advances. Revista de Contabilidad-Spanish Accounting Review, 15(1), 7-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1138-4891(12)70037-7

Tascón, M.T., Castaño, F.J., & Castro, P. (2018). A new tool for failure analysis in small firms: Frontiers of financial ratios based on percentile differences (PDFR). Spanish Journal of Finance and Accounting, 47(4), 433-463. https://doi.org/10.1080/02102412.2018.1468058

Ucbasaran, D., Shepherd, D.A., Lockett, A., & Lyon, S.J. (2013). Life after business failure: The process and consequences of business failure for entrepreneurs. Journal of Management, 39(1), 163-202. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206312457823

Van Hoang, T.H., Gurău, C., Lahiani, A., & Seran, T.L. (2018). Do crises impact capital structure? A study of French micro-enterprises. Small Business Economics, 50(1), 181-199. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-017-9899-x

Verikas, A., Kalsyte, Z., Bacauskiene, M., & Gelzinis, A. (2010). Hybrid and ensemble-based soft computing techniques in bankruptcy prediction: A survey. Soft Computing, 14(9), 995-1010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-009-0490-5

Westhead, P., Wright, M., & Ucbasaran, D. (2001). The internationalization of new and small firms: A resource-based view. Journal of Business Venturing, 16(4), 333-358. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0883-9026(99)00063-4

Publicado
01-07-2023
Cómo citar
Tascón, M.-T., Laitinen, E. K., Castaño, F. J., Castro, P., & Jokipii, A. (2023). Patrones comunes de fracaso y reorganización por sector y país para las PYMEs de seis países europeos utilizando PDFR: Common distress and reorganization patterns by sector and country for SMEs in six European countries using PDFR. Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, 26(2), 291–314. https://doi.org/10.6018/rcsar.420171
Número
Sección
Artículos