Una comparación internacional del incentivo para manipular el resultado con el objetivo de alcanzar los pronósticos de los analistas
An international comparison of incentives for earnings management in order to meet analysts forecasts
Resumen
Investigaciones previas han evidenciado que cuando los resultados alcanzan, o superan, los pronósticos de los analistas, el mercado reacciona positivamente, mientras que, cuando dichos pronósticos no son alcanzados, la reacción del mercado es la contraria. Por ello, los pronósticos se convierten en metas a batir y, tal como la literatura ya ha contrastado, surge un incentivo para la manipulación del resultado.
En este contexto, el presente trabajo va más allá, evidenciando que la reacción positiva o negativa es de diferente magnitud según los mercados y que ello explica que la fuerza con la que las empresas perciben el incentivo a manipular los resultados para alcanzar dichos pronósticos también sea diferente según el mercado en el que cotiza. Comparando seis mercados, obtenemos que el incentivo es más potente cuanto mayor es el premio por cumplir los pronósticos, o la penalización por no hacerlo.
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