ANÁLISIS ESPACIAL DEL RIESGO FUTURO AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO EN EL SUR DE LA REGIÓN PAMPEANA (ARGENTINA)
Supporting Agencies
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) -UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DEL SUR-BAHIA BLANCA-ARGENTINA
Abstract
Climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges facing humanity in the present century. The objective of this research is to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in future risk due to climate change in the southern Pampean Region of Argentina, considering two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) during the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. The methodology used included the comprehensive analysis of climatic data, such as average temperature and precipitation, and social data, such as the social vulnerability index. This allowed for the description of threats and social vulnerability, and subsequently calculating risk. The study area presented a marked increase in temperature and precipitation, which was of greater magnitude in the year 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. During this period and scenario considered, the increase in average precipitation generated levels of risk of greater magnitude than when considering temperature. In addition, the highest risk was observed in situations of high social vulnerability, specifically in the district where the most important city in the region is located. Therefore, this research provides fundamental information for decision makers, who can use it as a basis for the development of space management plans and the design of effective measures for adaptation and mitigation to climate change.Downloads
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