Consequences of climate change in the availability of water in the Southeast of the Iberian Peninsula. Evaluation of the INVEST hydrological model in future scenarios
Supporting Agencies
- Universidad de Friburgo (Suiza)
Abstract
Water scarcity characterizes the environments of the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula, and it is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change. An analysis of 30 basins was perform to assess their consequences through the hydrological model of the ecosystem services assessme nt InVEST. Scenarios of concentration of greenhouse gases were used, that represent intermediate and extreme conditions in the level of radiative forcing values (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), projected for two periods, short term (2020 - 2050) and medium term (2070 - 2 100). In the analyzed scenarios, the results indicated some trends of change, showing average decreases of 15% in precipitation, and average increases of 5% in potential evapotranspiration, regarding current values. Water yield showed a decrease, with nega tive variation rates between 30 and 50% for the most realistic scenarios (RCP45 2050 and RCP45 2100). The effects on the decrease of water resources due to climate change are visible, therefore solutions related to water management and future services will be demanded.
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References
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