Consecuencias del cambio climático en la disponibilidad de agua en el Sureste de la Península Ibérica. Evaluación del modelo hidrológico INVEST en escenarios futuros

  • Pedro Pérez Cutillas CEBAS-CSIC
Palabras clave: Sequía, RCP, modelo climático regional

Resumen

El sureste de la Península Ibérica se caracteriza por una trascendental escasez de agua, cada vez más agravada por los efectos del cambio climático. Para valorar sus consecuencias, se elaboró un análisis combinado de 30 cuencas mediante el modelo hidrológico del programa de evaluación de servicios ecosistémicos InVEST. La metodología empleada se basó en escenarios de concentración de gases de efecto invernadero, representados en niveles de fuerza de radiación de condición intermedia (RCP4.5) y extrema (RCP8.5); y proyectados para dos periodos, a corto plazo (2020-2050) y medio plazo (2070-2100). Los resultados mostraron unas tendencias de cambio en los escenarios analizados, con descensos promedio respecto a los registros actuales del 15% en precipitación, y aumentos promedio del 5% en la evapotranspiración de referencia. La reducción en la disponibilidad hídrica de las cuencas, proporcionaron tasas de variación negativas entre el 30 y 50% para los escenarios más realistas (RCP45 2050 y RCP45 2100). Los efectos en la disminución de los recursos hídricos debidos al cambio climático son evidentes, siendo necesarias soluciones urgentes relacionadas con la gestión del agua y sus demandas futuras.

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Publicado
04-05-2018
Sección
Artículos