The Kermack-McKendrick model in the spread of COVID-19 strains: Peru 2020-2021
Abstract
Introduction: The SIR epidemic model is useful for measuring the rate of spread of COVID-19 strains (B.1.617.2/P.1/C.37/B.1.621), in terms of epidemiological threshold R0 over time.
Objective: To evaluate a mathematical model of differential type, typical of the behavior of COVID-19 for the Peruvian collective.
Methods: A differential mathematical model of the behavior of the pandemic was developed for the Peruvian collective, based on the experience in the control of Kermack–McKendrick infections. The number of susceptible S, infected and spreading infection I and recovered R was estimated, using official datasets from the World Health Organization, based on the history between March 7 and September 12, 2020 and; projected for 52 weeks until September 11, 2021.
Results: The lowest rate of infections will occur from April 3, 2021. Evidencing a prognosis of lower transmissibility for May 29, 2021 with an infected rate (β=0.08) and threshold (R0=0.000), the accuracy of the model was also quantified at 97.795%, with 2.205% of average percentage error, with the temporary average value being R0 <1, so each person who contracts the disease will infect less than one person before dying or recovering, so the outbreak will disappear.
Conclusion: The curve of infections in Peru will depend directly on mitigation measures to curb the spread of infection and predict sustained transmission through vaccination against covid-19 type strains; with the observance of people of preventive measures.
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