EVALUACIÓN DE LAS CONSECUENCIAS DE UNA EPIDEMIA DE FIEBRE AFTOSA PARA EL SECTOR BOVINO DE ESPAÑA
Abstract
In this paper we evaluate both the risk of Foot-and-Mouth disease introduction into Spain and the consequences of an epidemic for the cattle industry. The mean risk of FMD introduction into Spain is 0,079 per year. Andalusia and Catalonia are the regions with the highest risk of a primary outbreak appearance. In order to determine the spread of the epidemic, we have simulated three likely scenarios according to the geographic distribution. The mean number of stamping out herds would be between 90 and 509 (with a cattle population between 10.500 and 45.400 bovines). The mean number of herds affected by the stand-still of livestock transport varies between 1.103 and 4.477 with a census of 28.000 and 185.500 bovines respectively. The results of this study are used by an agricultural insurance company to determine the feasibility and the cost of the inclusion of FMD insurance in their products.Downloads
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